Predicting the Cost of Unplanned Shutdowns of Power Stations: An Accelerator-Driven Subcritical Reactor Case Study
نویسندگان
چکیده
The growing penetration of intermittent power generation technologies is increasing the importance of operating efficient electricity balancing mechanisms. This paper presents a model for analysing the financial cost to an electricity supplier when a power generator unexpectedly instantaneously shuts down, in the context of the UK National Grid. The simulation probabilistically selects historical market data and includes analysis on the impact on the system buy price of historic unplanned generator shutdowns. A case study is presented for one revolutionary nuclear power station design concept, the Accelerator-Driven Subcritical Reactor (ADSR). The reliability of ADSRs is a key issue facing their future development. The model is used to identify when the economic cost of improving reliability exceeds the cost of unplanned shutdowns. The results are presented in a form that allows the reader to scale the cost of accelerator system failures for any capacity factor and coefficient of reliability, for a range of discount rates and electricity prices.
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